Thank you very much for being here.
非常感谢你们的到来。
>> There is more than one way to conduct
开展外交的方式不止一种
diplomacy. The very public push for
。
peace from US President Donald Trump as
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普
he hosted his Ukrainian counterpart at
在白宫接待乌克兰总统时公开呼吁和平
the White House.
>> But we can work a deal where we're
但我们可以达成一项协议，
working on a peace deal while they're
在他们战斗的同时，我们也在努力达成和平协议
fighting. They have to fight. I wish
。 他们必须战斗。 我希望
they could stop. I'd like them to stop.
他们能够停下来。 我希望他们停下来。
And then there's the first lady who this
本周，第一夫人
week has lent on soft power by writing a
letter directly addressed to the Russian
直接给俄罗斯
President Vladimir Putin.
总统弗拉基米尔·普京写了一封信，展现了软实力。 非常
>> To many thanks to your wife, first lady
感谢你的妻子，美国第一夫人，
of the United States uh she sent a
她
letter to Putin about our children,
给普京发了一封信，谈到我们的孩子、
abducted children and uh my wife, she
被绑架的孩子，还有我的妻子，
first lady of Ukraine.
乌克兰第一夫人。
>> She gave the letter. It's not to you to
她递上了这封信。 这不是你对
your wife. Oh,
你的妻子做的事。 哦，
>> at their meeting in Alaska, President
在阿拉斯加会晤时，
Trump personally handed President Putin
特朗普总统亲自向普京总统递交了
a letter from the US first lady, Melania
美国第一夫人梅拉尼娅·
Trump. In a rare intervention, she urged
特朗普的一封信。 在一次罕见的发言中，她敦促
President Putin to protect the innocence
普京总统保护
of children, saying, "It's time for this
儿童的纯真，并表示“现在是时候
to end." But it wasn't so bold. The
结束这种现象了”。 但并没有那么大胆。 这封
handwritten letter was opaque. It
手写信件不透明。 它
doesn't mention Ukrainian or Russian
没有直接提到乌克兰或俄罗斯
children directly.
儿童。
In protecting the innocence of these
在保护这些孩子的纯真方面
children, you will do more than serve
，你们所做的不仅仅是为
Russia alone. You serve humanity itself.
俄罗斯服务。 你为人类本身服务。
Such a bold idea transcends all human
如此大胆的想法超越了人类的一切
division. And you, Mr. Putin, are fit to
分歧。 而您，普京先生，今天就有能力
implement this vision with a stroke of
大笔一挥来实现这一愿景
the pen today. But many say it was a
。 但许多人表示，这是
subtle way for the Slovenian born first
这位出生于斯洛文尼亚的第一
lady to put the focus on Russia's
夫人将焦点集中在俄罗斯
abduction of Ukrainian children. Hours
绑架乌克兰儿童事件上的一种微妙方式。
after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022,
2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰数小时后，
Ukrainian children were taken from
乌克兰儿童被从
schools, orphanages, or frontline cities
学校、孤儿院或前线城市带走，
after their parents were either killed
因为他们的父母要么被杀害，要么被
or coerced.
胁迫。
>> We have no children left in any
orphanage in Kerzison. They were all
克尔齐松的任何孤儿院都没有留下任何孩子。 他们都被
taken away by the occupiers. We do not
占领者带走了。 我们不
know the fate of these children, nor the
知道这些孩子的命运如何，也不知道那些被
fate of the children who were taken out
of the educational institutions of our
从我们城市教育机构带走的孩子的命运如何
city.
As many as 35,000 children are still
missing or being held in Russia or
Russian held territory according to
experts at Yale University.
耶鲁大学专家表示，多达35000名儿童仍然失踪或被关押在俄罗斯或俄罗斯控制的领土上。
>> It's uh the single largest uh kidnapping
这是自第二次世界大战
of children in conflict since World War
以来冲突中发生的最大一起儿童绑架事件
II. We know based on the scale of the
。 根据所涉及设施的规模，我们知道
facilities involved that it stretches uh
in terms of the camp network stretches
营地网络
from the Black Sea to the Eastern
从黑海延伸到东
Pacific.
太平洋。
>> Thousands of Ukrainian children have
数以千计的乌克兰儿童
been separated from their parents, taken
被迫与父母分离，被送往
to so-called re-education camps, or even
所谓的再教育营，甚至被
put up for adoption inside Russia. This
俄罗斯境内收养。 这段
footage caused an uppool when it emerged
视频在 Telegram 上曝光后，引起了轩然大波，视频中，
on Telegram showing Ukrainian toddlers
still in occupied Ukraine dressed as
仍身处被占领乌克兰的乌克兰幼儿
Russian commanders in a nursery in
在马里波尔的一家托儿所里打扮成俄罗斯指挥官
Maripole.
>> So for the youngest kids from infants to
因此，对于从婴儿到幼儿的最小的孩子
toddlers, uh there there are camps such
，呃，那里有像
as Camp Teddy Bear, that's the name of
泰迪熊营这样的营地，这是营地的名字
the camp,
，
>> uh where uh they are singing uh Russian
呃，他们在那里唱俄罗斯
folk songs, doing Russian dances. They
民歌，跳俄罗斯舞蹈。 他们
can't speak Ukrainian without being
不能说乌克兰语，否则会受到
punished.
惩罚。
>> Back in 2023, the International Criminal
早在 2023 年，国际刑事
Court charged President Putin with war
法院就指控普京总统犯有战争
crimes, accusing him of abducting
罪，指控他绑架
Ukrainian children and relocating them
乌克兰儿童并将他们转移
to Russia. Russia claims some of the
到俄罗斯。 俄罗斯声称，一些
children don't have parents or guardians
儿童没有父母或监护人
to look after them. So far, around 1,500
照顾。 迄今为止，已有约1500名
children have been returned to Ukraine.
儿童返回乌克兰。
At the White House, surrounded by
在白宫，在欧洲领导人的簇拥下
European leaders, President Trump says
，特朗普总统表示，
he wants a face-to-face meeting between
他希望
President Zilinski and Putin to end the
齐林斯基总统和普京进行面对面会谈，以结束
war. But for a generation of Ukrainian
战争。 但对于在战争中
children who were taken too young,
过早死去、留下
scarred by this war, this deal will be
创伤的一代乌克兰儿童来说，这项协议已经
too late. We're now joined by Dr. Neil
太晚了。 现在我们请到
Melvin, director of international
security at the Royal United Service
皇家联合服务
Institute. Um my first question was the
研究所国际安全主任尼尔·梅尔文博士。 嗯，我的第一个问题是，
meeting in the White House yesterday the
昨天在白宫举行的会议是实现
best possibility for peace or was it a
和平的最佳可能性还是一场
political spectacle?
政治闹剧？
>> Well I think it was a little bit of both
嗯，我认为
in a way is that the for the European
从某种程度上来说，两者都有一点，因为对于欧洲
side they were anxious to avoid a repeat
方面来说，他们急于避免重蹈斯林斯基
of the previous visit by President
总统上次访问
Slinsky to the Oval Office the disaster
椭圆形办公室的覆辙——
of the February meeting and in that
二月份会议的灾难，从这个
sense the optics look much better. there
意义上来说，这次会面看起来要好得多。
was a much better mood uh and there was
气氛好多了，
some idea that there was progress
有人认为
particularly on the issue of security
特别是在安全保障问题上取得了进展，
guarantees but overall that the whole
但总体而言，整个
process around peace remains very
和平进程仍然非常
fragile. President Trump has made rather
脆弱。 特朗普总统对安全保障做出了相当
ambiguous commitments to security
模糊的承诺
guarantees. So there's still a lot of
。 因此，要
work to be done to really persuade the
真正让
Ukrainians that this is a real
乌克兰人相信这是一个真正的
commitment. And on that security
承诺，还有很多工作要做。 关于安全
guarantees, up until now, the US has
保障，到目前为止，美国
been reluctant to commit to them, but
一直不愿意做出承诺，但
now Donald Trump says the US could be
现在唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国可能会
involved along with a coalition of
与欧洲国家联盟一起参与其中
Europe European countries. How
significant would that be?
这有多重要？
>> Well, if it's a real commitment, a real
好吧，如果这是一个真正的承诺，一个真正的
security guarantee, then of course that
安全保障，那么当然它
would potentially be a gamecher.
可能是一个游戏者。
Although we saw the Russian side come
尽管我们看到俄罗斯方面
out very quickly to issue a statement
很快发表声明
saying that actually any kind of NATO
称，实际上任何形式的北约
presence or presence from NATO countries
存在或北约国家
in Ukraine is totally unacceptable to
在乌克兰的存在都是俄罗斯联邦完全不可接受的，
the Russian Federation and would risk
并且会导致局势
escalation. So uh it may be possible
升级。 因此，
that the Europeans Ukraine and the
欧洲、乌克兰和
United States can agree but still they
美国可能会同意，但他们仍然
have to get Vladimir Putin on board. But
需要得到弗拉基米尔·普京的支持。 但如果
if if Putin if um Trump is ready to
普京，如果特朗普
actually make a big commitment, that
真的准备做出重大承诺，
would shift the dial. But we still don't
情况就会发生改变。 但我们仍不
know that's the case. As you as you
知道事实是否如此。 正如您
mentioned in February, ahead of the last
在二月份提到的那样，在上次
Zillinsky meeting, he was categorical
齐林斯基会议之前，他明确表示
that the United States would not provide
美国不会提供
security guarantees. Now he seems to
安全保障。 现在他似乎
have done a 180 degree turn, but he
已经 180 度大转变，但
still uses quite unclear language. He's
语言仍然相当不清楚。 他并
not really specifying what he means by
没有具体说明
security guarantees. He's now even
安全保障的含义。 他现在甚至
talked on social media about
在社交媒体上谈论
coordinating with the with the Europeans
与
who would be in the in the forefront.
处于前线的欧洲人进行协调。
But the Europeans are they're only
但欧洲人只
offering very soft guarantees, more like
提供非常软性的保证，更像是
reassurance, training missions, bit of
保证、训练任务和一些
air policing. This isn't a hard security
空中警务。
commitment that Ukraine would really
need, I think, to engage in a peace deal
我认为，这并不是乌克兰与普京达成和平协议真正需要的硬性安全承诺
with Putin.
>> Which is why, you know, we saw European
这就是为什么我们看到欧洲
leaders rush to support President
领导人纷纷支持
Zilinski. Do they and Trump have the
齐林斯基总统。 他们和特朗普
same vision for how this will end?
对于此事的结局有相同的看法吗？
>> Well, there's not really a clear vision.
嗯，确实没有一个清晰的愿景。
I think President Trump is is driven by
我认为特朗普总统的动机是，
his idea that he is a peacemaker and
他认为自己是一个和平缔造者，而
that this is just the latest uh although
这只是他围绕赢得诺贝尔和平奖制定议程方面获得的最新奖项之一，尽管这
perhaps one of the biggest prizes for
可能是他获得的最大奖项之一
him in terms of building an agenda
around winning the Nobel Peace Prize. He
。 他
seems less concerned with the details of
似乎不太关心
what a peace agreement might look like
和平协议的具体细节，
than actually reaching something that
而是真正地达成
can be called a peace deal. Whereas the
所谓的和平协议。
Europeans, of course, understand that
当然，欧洲人明白，
this kind of peace deal is going to take
这种和平协议需要付出
a lot of work. There's going to be a lot
很多努力。 有
of different agreements that have to be
很多不同的协议需要
made and the clock is ticking. So,
达成，时间正在流逝。 所以，
they're anxious that uh we don't get
他们担心我们不会
sucked into a peace process that would
卷入和平进程，而这会
feed into Putin's agenda to keep the war
导致普京继续战争的议程
going. Putin remains convinced he can
。 普京仍然坚信他能够
win the war on the battlefield. And he
赢得战场的胜利。 他将
he sees these discussions really as a
这些讨论视为一种
way of stalling pressure on him to bring
缓解压力、
the war to an end.
结束战争的方式。
And last night we saw President Trump u
昨晚我们看到了特朗普总统，
we heard sorry President Trump saying I
我们听到特朗普总统说
think um as in Putin wants to make a
对不起，我认为普京想
deal. Is there any indication that what
达成协议。 有什么迹象表明
the Russian president will do that?
俄罗斯总统将会这么做吗？
>> I mean certainly in the public
我的意思是，公开声明中确实
statements there's very little
很少有迹象
indication that the Russians want to
表明俄罗斯想要
make a deal. I think what they they're
达成协议。 我认为他们
anxious to keep pressure off them and
急于减轻压力，
they saw last week some momentum
他们看到上周
building in the White House around
白宫在
sanctions and so they offered the summit
制裁问题上势头强劲，因此他们提出举行峰会来
as a way of really deflecting that
转移话题，而这一举措也
conversation and that has worked because
奏效了，因为
sanctions has gone away and on the US
制裁已经取消，在美国
side and we're now talking about a peace
方面，我们现在谈论的是和平
deal rather than a ceasefire. So I think
协议，而不是停火。 所以我认为
Putin's first plan which was keep the
普京的首要计划是让
war going uh by time to prosecute this
战争持续下去，随着时间的推移，
and and build up momentum then perhaps
积聚势头，然后也许
take Donbass uh back by military force
用军事力量夺回顿巴斯，
that seems to be working. I mean they've
这似乎正在奏效。 我的意思是他们
offered now potentially another meeting
现在提出可能
in two weeks time. Again that's a long a
在两周后再举行一次会议。 再次，这是一场漫长而
long time on the battlefront. So you see
持久的战斗。 所以你会看到
the Russians keeping the process going,
俄罗斯人继续推进这一进程，
trying to keep the pressure off, but not
试图减轻压力，但并没有
really committing to actually the tough
真正做出
decisions that would have to bring the
war to an end. And and Putin remains
结束战争的艰难决定。 普京仍然
committed to the same aims that he had
致力于
at the beginning of the war, and that
战争开始时的目标，那
was to really subjugate Ukraine.
就是真正征服乌克兰。
>> Thank you, Dr. Neil. We appreciate your
谢谢您，尼尔博士。 感谢您的
time. Thanks for joining us.
时间。 感谢您的加入。